Bank of Singapore Newsflow Dailies 8 October 2021
- Bahren Shaari on succession at BoS: Our business is not defined by personality ()
NEWSFLOW US Market Recap
(Previous trading session)US markets ended higher on Thursday on a more favourable outlook with regards to the extension of the US debt ceiling.
34754.94 0.98 13.55
4399.76 0.83 17.14
14654.02 1.05 13.70
19.54 -6.95 -14.11
Econ Data Earnings Schedule
- US Initial Jobless Claims Oct 2 326k vs 362k prior.
- US Continuing Claims Sep 25 2714k vs 2802k prior.
- US Langer Consumer Comfort Oct 3 53.4 vs 54.7 prior.
- Conagra Brands Inc EPS 0.50 vs 0.48 est.
European Market Recap
(Previous trading session)European markets closed higher as concerns over the energy crisis eased and on reassurance by the European Central Bank of potential fresh support when PEPP is phased out.
Econ Data Earnings Schedule
- Germany Industrial Production SA MoM Aug -4.0% vs 1.0% prior.
- Germany Industrial Production WDA YoY Aug 1.7% vs 5.7% prior.
- Italy Retail Sales MoM Aug 0.4% vs -0.4% prior.
- Italy Retail Sales YoY Aug 1.9% vs 6.7% prior.
- None today.
Asia Pacific Recap
(Previous trading session)Asian markets ended higher led by a rebound in technology shares and optimism over the progress of the US debt-ceiling accord.
MSCI AC Asia Pacific
Straits Times Index
Econ Data Earnings Schedule
- Japan Leading Index CI Aug P 101.8 vs 104.1 prior.
- China Foreign Reserves Sep $3200.63b vs $3232.12b prior.
- Hong Kong Foreign Reserves Sep $495.0b vs $497.0b prior.
- Japan Household Spending YoY Aug -3.0% vs 0.7% prior.
- Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Aug 0.7% vs 1.0% prior.
- Japan BoP Current Account Balance Aug ¥1665.6b vs ¥1910.8b prior.
- None today.
· The Senate made progress on legislation to temporarily increase the US debt ceiling, as a sufficient number of Republicans voted with Democrats to end a partisan clash that has shaken financial markets and led to concerns of the nation’s first default on government obligations later this month. The vote Thursday night was 61-38, just one more than needed to allow legislation lifting the statutory debt ceiling by $480 billion to a vote on passage. That second critical vote can clear by majority, and Democrats who lead the Senate are confident that they have enough support in their own party to clear the vote. Government operations funding also expires on the 3rd of December, potentially culminating in a government shutdown unless lawmakers can complete agency budgets for this fiscal year. · Oil is on track for a seventh weekly gain, marking the longest such run since December, as a global energy crunch roiled financial markets. Futures in New York extended gains in early Asian trading to near $79 a barrel after the US Energy Department said that it had no plans currently to tap the nation’s oil reserves. Crude rallied to the highest since 2014 earlier this week after OPEC+ stuck with a gradual boost in supply next month despite a tightening market, exacerbated by the energy crisis.
Singapore News Flows
· The STI Index gained 0.84 points to close at 3101.99 on Thursday. · Singapore shared ended higher on Thursday, tracking broader regional gains and rotation into value-centric stocks. Keppel New Energy, a subsidiary of Keppel Corporation’s infrastructure arm, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Thai renewables firm BCPG in a partnership which aims to provide low-carbon, sustainable energy solutions and infrastructure in the ASEAN region. Both firms will work together on renewable energy generation and interconnected transmission, as well as projects that generate high-quality renewable energy certificates and carbon offsets for the growing carbon offset markets in the region. They also intend to jointly develop a carbon credit marketplace and trading platform to be utilised in Thailand, Laos and Singapore in the future. NEWSFLOW
Treasury MarketOvernight the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 1.58% (+4bp). Focus remain on federal debt ceiling into December, a move that would avert a historic default later this month.
Tenor 7/10 Today
Credit MarketsAsiaWeak sentiment continues, along with soft macro backdrop. China HY, saw better sellers today with Single B names weaker again, including KAISAG/GRNLGR/YUZHOU/RONXIN, down another 4-8pts with one way selling. Names like KWGPRO/CIFIHG/LOGPH saw some demand from RM accounts but lost support later without strong buying interest. Chinese IG bonds widened 3-7bp generally.AT1AT1 closed the day about ¼ lower as European investors sell bonds in the wake of continued equity weakness.CEEMEAIn CEEMEA market it was relatively quiet. Selling across Turkey bonds seem to be stabilized and in HY, Oman saw buyers and closed unchanged/-15c. HY reached lows of -1.25pts and generally closed -25c/-65c with some demand coming out into the close.LatAmLatam credit overnight flows were very active, seeing notable selling of paper in Mexico, Colombia and buyers of Chile and Brazil. Flows were mixed with a skew to selling, with bonds closed at – 1/8 to -1/4 point.
NEWSFLOW & MARKET COMMENTARY
· Risk sentiment improved and USD mildly under-performed, as US Senate agreed to lift debt ceiling until 3 December and European gas prices fell. China market will reopen, hopefully to provide updates on Chinese property developers debt issues. AUD crosses out-performed overnight, possibly supported by Australia’s surging trade surplus, as coal and LNG rescue exports from the iron ore plunge. US Treasury yields continued to rise, and the curve steepened further amid confirmation that Democrats and Republicans had reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling by USD480bn. The strain in the Treasury market has moved away from T-bills trading in late-October into those maturing in early- to mid-December. Separately, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said Russia has the capacity to raise gas exports by around 15% of peak winter supply to Europe.
· The Fed should give greenlight to start tapering on November unless today’s US payroll print (8.30pm SGT/HKT) surprises to the downside significantly. The risk of a more hawkish Fed shift hastening USD’s transition to a stronger path drives the recent downgrades of our 12-month forecasts for the EURUSD, USDJPY and gold. Consensus looks for Sep non-farm payroll to rise 500k. It would likely take a much weaker number below 200k or closer to flat to dissuade the Fed from signaling taper at its November meeting. Separately, last week’s US initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 326k (exp: 348k, prev: 364k). This was the lowest number in a month. Overall, the data is encouraging, showing continued improvement in the US labour market, despite a recent uptick in weekly jobless claims.
· Increased China growth headwinds warrants further caution on the CNY outlook even as we expect the CNY to remain broadly stable. We raised the 12-month USDCNY forecast to 6.50 from 6.40. Despite strength in the broad USD index, the USDCNY bilateral exchange rate was range-bound over the past month, and we see limited scope for much movement given uncertainty around US-China trade talks and the prospects for easing by the PBoC. US officials announced plans to schedule a virtual Biden-Xi call in the coming weeks. US-China relationship may turn into a major market theme later this year. Recent US-China presidential call agreed on engagement, with no direct reference to tariffs. US-China relations continue to pose two-way risks, skewed more to the downside for USDCNY, especially on any easing in relations and/or lower tariffs. The Biden administration has set out its approach to trade with China, which involves re-engaging on the Phase One trade deal and restarting a tariff exclusion process.
USD Performance Table
Return in US$ Spot 1 Day YTD EURUSD 1.1554 0.0% -5.4% GBPUSD 1.3614 0.3% -0.4% USDJPY 111.7400 0.3% 8.2% USDCHF 0.9289 0.2% 4.9% USDCAD 1.2553 -0.3% -1.4% AUDUSD 0.7312 0.6% -5.0% NZDUSD 0.6932 0.3% -3.5% USDSGD 1.3581 0.0% 2.8% EURGBP 0.8485 -0.2% -5.1% USDCNH 6.4509 0.0% -0.8%
Previous Session Returns % Close NetChange % Change Low High YTD 2020 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,762.48 2.51 0.14 1,750.60 1,766.70 (7.45) 25.02 Silver Spot 22.59 (0.07) (0.29) 22.35 22.81 (14.34) 47.83 Energy Crude(CL1) 77.43 (1.50) (1.90) 74.96 78.89 62.83 (20.89) Brent(CO1) 81.08 (1.48) (1.79) 79.08 82.50 59.42 (21.66) Base Metals Aluminum 3M 2,897.00 (24.00) (0.82) 2,897.00 2,957.50 48.22 8.97 Copper 3M 9,250.50 122.50 1.34 9,100.00 9,306.00 17.89 25.77 Softs Corn 532.25 (5.25) (0.98) 527.50 535.25 10.05 25.39 Wheat 746.00 1.25 0.17 739.50 752.50 15.43 14.85 Soybean 1,242.00 (8.50) (0.68) 1,233.50 1,249.50 (5.01) 40.28 Sugar 19.77 (0.08) (0.40) 19.76 20.02 28.00 15.50 Clients are reminded that the products ideas contained herein do not take into account the client’s risk profile and may not be suitable nor appropriate for everyone. Please refer to the individual Product Risk ratings stated in the attached documents. Products risk rated “1” by BOS suggests a very low downside risk of loss, while products risk rated “5” carry very high downside risk. Please discuss with your Relationship Manager in order to understand which products are suitable for you. No recommendation (whether implied or otherwise) is being made in the absence of any such discussion. General product suitability in view of client’s Risk Profile is provided in the table below for reference:
Client Risk Profile
Allowable Products with Risk Ratings
1, 2, 3
1, 2, 3, 4
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
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Previous Session Returns % Close NetChange % Change Low High YTD 2020 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,759.96 (9.54) (0.54) 1,744.84 1,764.95 (7.07) 25.02 Silver Spot 22.66 0.00 0.00 22.18 22.71 (14.28) 47.83 Energy Crude(CL1) 78.93 1.31 1.69 76.83 79.78 58.88 (20.89) Brent(CO1) 82.56 1.30 1.60 80.60 83.47 56.26 (21.66) Base Metals Aluminum 3M 2,921.00 5.00 0.17 2,872.00 2,922.50 45.65 8.97 Copper 3M 9,250.50 122.50 1.34 8,992.00 9,250.50 17.89 25.77 Softs Corn 537.50 (3.25) (0.60) 531.50 544.75 9.69 25.39 Wheat 744.75 (11.75) (1.55) 742.25 756.75 15.93 14.85 Soybean 1,250.50 14.75 1.19 1,239.25 1,255.50 (5.49) 40.28 Sugar 19.85 0.16 0.81 19.65 19.87 27.35 15.50 The Bank and its Affiliates and their respective officers, employees, agents and representatives do not make any express or implied representations, warranties or guarantees as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness or reliability of the information, data or any other contents of this material. 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Accordingly, this material, and any other document or material in connection with the offer or sale, or invitation for subscription or purchase, of the units may not be circulated or distributed, nor may the units be offered or sold, or be made the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to persons in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor (as defined in the SFA) pursuant to Section 304 of the SFA, (ii) to a relevant person (as defined in Section 305(5) of the SFA) pursuant to Section 305(1), or any person pursuant to Section 305(2), and in accordance with the conditions specified in Section 305, of the SFA, and where applicable, the conditions specified in Regulation 3 of the Securities and Futures (Classes of Investors) Regulations 2018, or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA.Where units are subscribed or purchased under Section 305 of the SFA by a relevant person which is:(a) a corporation (which is not an accredited investor (as defined in the SFA)) the sole business of which is to hold investments and the entire share capital of which is owned by one or more individuals, each of whom is an accredited investor; or(b) a trust (where the trustee is not an accredited investor) whose sole purpose is to hold investments and each beneficiary of the trust is an individual who is an accredited investor,securities (as defined in Section 2(1) of the SFA) of that corporation or the beneficiaries’ rights and interest (howsoever described) in that trust shall not be transferred within six months after that corporation or that trust has acquired the units pursuant to an offer made under Section 305 of the SFA except:(1) to an institutional investor or to a relevant person, or to any person arising from an offer referred to in Section 275(1A) or Section 305A(3)(i)(B) of the SFA;(2) where no consideration is or will be given for the transfer;(3) where the transfer is by operation of law;(4) as specified in Section 305A(5) of the SFA; or(5) as specified in Regulation 36A of the Securities and Futures (Offers of Investments) (Collective Investment Schemes) Regulations 2005 of Singapore.]
Where this material relates to structured deposits, this clause applies:The product is a structured deposit. Unlike traditional deposits, structured deposits have an investment element and returns may vary. You may wish to seek independent advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase this product. In the event that you choose not to seek independent advice from a financial adviser, you should carefully consider whether this product is suitable for you.Where this material relates to dual currency investments, this clause applies:The product is a dual currency investment. A dual currency investment product (“DCI”) is a derivative product or structured product with derivatives embedded in it. A DCI involves a currency option which confers on the deposit-taking institution the right to repay the principal sum at maturity in either the base or alternate currency. Part or all of the interest earned on this investment represents the premium on this option.By purchasing this DCI, you are giving the issuer of this product the right to repay you at a future date in an alternate currency that is different from the currency in which your initial investment was made, regardless of whether you wish to be repaid in this currency at that time. DCIs are subject to foreign exchange fluctuations which may affect the return of your investment. Exchange controls may also be applicable to the currencies your investment is linked to. You may incur a loss on your principal sum in comparison with the base amount initially invested. You may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase this product. In the event that you choose not to seek advice from a financial adviser, you should carefully consider whether this product is suitable for you.Hong KongThis document has not been delivered for registration to the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. Accordingly: (i) the shares/notes may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong by means of any document other than to persons who are “Professional Investors” within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong and the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules made thereunder or in other circumstances which do not result in the document being a “prospectus” within the meaning of the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance (Cap. 32) of Hong Kong or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of the Companies (Winding Up and Miscellaneous Provisions) Ordinance; and (ii) no person may issue any invitation, advertisement or other document relating to the shares/notes whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, which is directed at, or the contents of which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the securities laws of Hong Kong) other than with respect to the shares/notes which are or are intended to be disposed of only to persons outside Hong Kong or only to “Professional Investors” within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Ordinance and the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules made thereunder.Where this material relates to a Complex Product, this clause applies:Warning Statement and Information about Complex Product(Applicable to accounts managed by Hong Kong Relationship Manager)– Investor should exercise caution in relation to Complex Products;– Investor should take note that the past performance of a Complex Product is not indicative of future performance;– All Complex Products offered by the Bank are only available to Professional Investors (except for derivative fund without loss absorption features which have been authorized by the SFC and listed derivatives); and– All Complex Products are not principal protected
Where this material relates to a Complex Product – Funds and ETFs, this clause applies additionally:– For Complex Products where offering documents or information provided by the issuer have not been reviewed by the SFC, investors should exercise caution in relation to the offer and take note that such offering documents have not been reviewed by the SFC;– For Complex Products described as having been authorised by the SFC, investors should take note that the authorisation does not amount to an official recommendation and that the SFC’s authorisation is not a recommendation or endorsement of that Complex Product nor does it guarantee the commercial merits of that Complex Product or its performance.Where this material relates to a Complex Product (Options and its variants, Swap and its variants, Accumulator and its variants, Reverse Accumulator and its variants, Forwards), this clause applies additionally:– Investor may incur losses which exceed the amount investedWhere this material relates to a Loss Absorption Product, this clause applies:Warning Statement and Information about Loss Absorption Products(Applicable to accounts managed by Hong Kong Relationship Manager)Before you invest in any Loss Absorption Product (as defined by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority), please read and ensure that you understand the features of a Loss Absorption Product, which may generally have the following features:
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- an “Exempt Offer” in accordance with the Market Rules of the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the “DFSA”); and
- made only to persons who meet the Professional Client criteria set out in Rule 2.3.1 of the DFSA Markets Rules.The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any documents in connection with Exempt Offers.The DFSA has not approved the Information Memorandum or taken steps to verify the information set out in it, and has no responsibility for it.The product to which this document relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions in respect of their resale. Prospective purchasers of the products offered should conduct their own due diligence on the products.Please make sure that you understand the contents of the relevant offering documents (including but not limited to the Information Memorandum or Offering Circular) and the terms set out in this document. If you do not understand the contents of the relevant offering documents and the terms set out in this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser as you deem necessary, before you decide whether or not to invest.Where this material relates to a fund, this clause applies:This Fund is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any Prospectus or other documents in connection with this Fund. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved the Prospectus or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in the Prospectus, and has no responsibility for it. The Units to which this Fund relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on their resale. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on the Units. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorized financial adviser. Please note that this offer is intended for only Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients.These are also available for inspection, during normal business hours, at the following location:Bank of SingaporeOffice 30-32 Level 28Central Park TowerDIFC, DubaiU.A.ECross Border Disclaimer and DisclosuresRefer to https://www.bankofsingapore.com/Disclaimers_and_Disclosures.html for cross-border marketing disclaimers and disclosures.
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